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Clawd Front 🌪️

AI-powered storm intelligence. Real-time tornado probabilities, SPC outlooks, and ML forecasting.

Clawd Front is an independent AI weather intelligence platform combining NWS/SPC data with custom machine learning models to provide best-in-class tornado probability forecasting.

View Live Map → Our ML Models
Platform Capabilities
Built on years of storm data, ML research, and real-time data pipelines.
🧠
0.919
ML Model v6.0 AUC
Best-in-class tornado probability model trained on ERA5 + HRRR + SPC storm events.
🎯
Nadocast
ML Integration
Real-time Nadocast probabilistic tornado forecasts ingested and displayed for 60+ metro areas.
⚡
Live NWS
Warning Overlay
Real-time NWS tornado warnings and watches rendered on the live map with auto-refresh.
📡
Day 1–3
SPC Outlook Integration
Official SPC convective outlooks with tornado probability risk level mapping.
🌐
Vortex v2
Gridded ML Model
High-resolution gridded tornado probability output from our second-generation Vortex model.
🏙️
60+
Metro Areas Tracked
Probabilistic tornado threat monitored for over 60 major metropolitan areas across the US.
How It Works
From raw data to actionable probability — the Clawd Front pipeline.
📊
SPC GeoJSON
Day 1–3 tornado outlook polygons
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🌡️
IEM Mesoanalysis
Surface obs, STP, CAPE, SRH
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🖥️
HRRR / ERA5
Reanalysis + NWP model output
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🧮
ML Ensemble
XGBoost v6.0 + Vortex v2 grid
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🎯
Probability Output
Metro tornado % + sig tornado %

🗺️ Live Tornado Map

Warnings: — | Watches: — Refreshing in 30s

📊 SPC Outlooks

Official Storm Prediction Center convective outlooks — updated multiple times daily.

⚠️ Official NWS/SPC products displayed for reference. Always consult spc.noaa.gov for life-safety decisions.
🌀Loading SPC Day 1 outlook…
TSTM
MRGL
SLGT
ENH
MDT
HIGH
SPC Day 1 Categorical Outlook — View on spc.noaa.gov ↗

📋 Day 1 Issuance Context

The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook is issued multiple times daily beginning at 0600 UTC. The tornado probability product highlights areas where tornado activity is possible within the next 24 hours.

Risk Categories:
• TSTM — General thunder possible
• MRGL — Marginal risk (5–10%)
• SLGT — Slight risk (10–15%)
• ENH — Enhanced risk (15–30%)
• MDT — Moderate risk (30–45%)
• HIGH — High risk (45%+)
🌀Loading SPC Day 2 outlook…
SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook — View on spc.noaa.gov ↗
🌀Loading SPC Day 3 outlook…
SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook — View on spc.noaa.gov ↗
Clawd Front AI Outlook

Clawd Front AI Outlook — ML-generated tornado probability overlay

🎯 Nadocast Data

ML-based probabilistic tornado forecasts from nadocast.com, ingested and displayed in real-time.

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🧠 Our ML Models

Custom machine learning models trained on decades of storm data for best-in-class tornado prediction.

0.919
AUC-ROC

Clawd Front ML v6.0

Our flagship tornado probability model, trained on ERA5 reanalysis + HRRR NWP output + SPC storm event records spanning 2000–2025. XGBoost ensemble with isotonic regression calibration. Evaluated on held-out storm days, achieving a class-leading AUC of 0.919.

ERA5 + HRRR + SPC Storm Events | XGBoost + Isotonic Calibration | 2000–2025

📈 Top Feature Importances

neighbor_sig_cnt
0.27
synoptic_forcing
0.12
STP (sig tornado param)
0.09
CAPE (surface-based)
0.07
SRH (0-3km storm relative)
0.06
LCL height
0.05
0-6km shear (bulk)
0.04
Model Version History
Version AUC-ROC Key Changes Training Data
v5.0
0.814
Initial XGBoost baseline ERA5 2000–2022
v5.1
0.882
HRRR integration, extended features ERA5+HRRR 2000–2023
v5.2
0.882
Isotonic calibration, feature pruning ERA5+HRRR 2000–2023
v6.0 ★
0.919
neighbor_sig_cnt feature, synoptic forcing, Vortex v2 grid ensemble ERA5+HRRR+SPC 2000–2025
Storm Threat Map
Storm Threat Map

CF ML v6.0 storm threat probability output

Nadocast Comparison
Nadocast Comparison Map

Nadocast metro probability overlay for comparison

🔬 Methodology

  1. Data Ingestion: SPC storm event reports, ERA5 reanalysis fields (CAPE, SRH, shear, LCL, STP, LI), and HRRR NWP output are pulled and aligned to a common grid for each forecast day.
  2. Feature Engineering: Spatial clustering of significant tornado reports ("neighbor_sig_cnt") is computed within 150km radius. Synoptic forcing index is derived from 500mb height anomaly and upper divergence fields.
  3. Model Training: XGBoost classifier trained on storm-day samples (positive = any EF1+ tornado within 25mi of grid point). 80/20 temporal split ensures no data leakage from held-out evaluation years.
  4. Calibration: Isotonic regression calibration applied post-training to align model output probabilities with observed climatological base rates.
  5. Vortex v2 Ensemble: Gridded Vortex v2 output is blended with the metro-point model for spatial coverage and uncertainty quantification across the full CONUS grid.
  6. Verification: Ongoing Brier Score and AUC verification against NWS LSR reports. Model is retrained when AUC drops below 0.87 on a rolling 90-day window.

🌩️ AI Forecast

Clawd Front AI-generated narrative threat summary based on Nadocast + SPC data.

⚠️ UNOFFICIAL AI FORECAST — Not an NWS/SPC product. Do not use for life-safety decisions.
Clawd Front AI Outlook
CF AI Outlook

Machine learning tornado probability forecast

📅 Next 24 Hours

Generating forecast...

📊 Top Threat Areas

🔍 Forecast Methodology

This AI forecast is generated client-side by synthesizing Nadocast probabilistic metro forecasts with the Clawd Front ML v6.0 model output. It is not a product of the National Weather Service or Storm Prediction Center. For official forecasts, warnings, and watches, always consult weather.gov and spc.noaa.gov.

Clawd Track — Live Storm Nowcast

Reports (6h): — Refreshing in 60s

Legend

Confirmed Tornado
ASOS Station
NEXRAD: Iowa State IEM | Warnings/Watches: NWS
Tornado Warning Svr Tstorm Warning Tornado Watch Svr Tstorm Watch
LSR: NWS Local Storm Reports
🌪️ Confirmed Tornado Reports — Last 6 Hours Loading…
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